![]() The analysis of Australian data presented here estimates a longer delay to death than has previously been assumed for the Australian context,” he says. “Modelling assumptions need to be continually updated on the basis of new data. Professor Marschner says the findings provide key information to help understand the natural progression of COVID-19 infection, and for calibrating mathematical models to the Australian context. ![]() This allowed a more comprehensive analysis of mortality.” ![]() “The analytics algorithms effectively compared the daily pattern of case diagnoses with the subsequent daily pattern of deaths, to unravel population-level information on survival time and mortality risk. “It is therefore a powerful analytical tool that could be widely applied to extract substantial mortality information from existing global surveillance data,” said Professor Marschner The study was therefore able to use complete data on all deaths and diagnoses within the Victorian population, without the need to link onset and outcome at an individual level. Previous studies of COVID-19 mortality have used smaller data sets which required a clear patient history, tracking both the onset and outcome of COVID-19 infection in an individual.ĭeconvolution bypasses that limitation by taking the population’s daily case counts and determining what the mortality pattern must have been to produce the population’s daily death counts. ![]()
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